Parole Predictions: Estimating the Likelihood a Humanitarian Parole Group will Receive a Status Adjustment

Abstract

Humanitarian parole is an immigration policy that allows paroled individuals to enter or remain in the United States temporarily. The standard pathway for parolees to gain legal permanent residency (LPR) is limited by a number of requirements and restrictions, i.e., sponsorship from a family member or employer is usually required. However, in some instances, laws have been passed that grant an automatic adjustment to LPR status for select groups of parolees. This study is intended to investigate the circumstances that lead some groups to receive a status adjustment while other groups are denied a dedicated pathway to legal permanent residency. Specifically, this paper asks what variables best predict if a group paroled into the United States will receive a status adjustment. Using logit regression, I find that the group majority religion and group majority ethnicity have no statistically significant relationship with the granting of a status adjustment. Data analysis indicates that as the polarization level during the year a parole group is recognized increases, the probability that a group will receive a status adjustment decreases