Integration of Climate Change and Ecosystem Services into Spatial Plans: A New Approach in the Province of Rimini

Abstract

This study presents a spatial methodology for integrating climate change (CC) risks and ecosystem service (ES) assessments into strategic spatial planning, applied to the Metropolitan Plan of the Province of Rimini (Emilia-Romagna, Italy). The proposed approach combines IPCC-aligned climate vulnerability analysis with ecosystem service mapping based on the methodology developed by CREN. Climate risks, including urban heat islands, droughts, and urban floods, were assessed using satellite-derived indices such as Land Surface Temperature (LST), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), and hydraulic modeling. For ESs, nine key services were evaluated and mapped by integrating land use, forest cover, and habitat data with biophysical modulation factors (e.g., slope, carbon stock, infiltration capacity). The results highlight priority areas where climate adaptation and ecological functions converge, enabling targeted interventions. This integrated workflow offers a replicable and scalable planning tool to support evidence-based decision-making at the metropolitan level. Its adoption is recommended by other local and regional authorities to strengthen the climate and ecological responsiveness of spatial planning instruments