How Do Local Economic Structures Influence the Variability of Land Sensitivity to Degradation in Italy?

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between local economic structures and environmental sensitivity in Italy, focusing on a novel indicator that estimates the spatial variability of the Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) over time. This approach captures within-region disparities in degradation processes, addressing a key gap in the existing literature. Using a dataset covering all Italian provinces from 1960 to 2010 and considering multiple socio-economic variables, the research evaluates their impacts on ESAI variability. In particular, this study adopts a spatial autoregressive model (SAR), which allows both direct and indirect effects of selected predictors to be captured. The findings offer insights for policymakers in designing strategies to mitigate the spread of land degradation hotspots and promote strategies that balance environmental conservation with socio-economic development to ensure resource sustainability