Towards a probabilistic risk analysis due to volcanic‑hazards at Mount Etna

Abstract

Mount Etna is the largest active volcano in Europe and is renowned for its effusive and explosive eruptions, frequently accompanied by intense seismic activity. The densely urbanized area of Eastern Sicily (Italy), situated on the flanks of Mt. Etna, has been the focus of an innovative and comprehensive research project aimed at evaluating the potential volcano hazards and subsequent risks. Hazardscenarios were generated within the research project PANACEA (Probabilistic AssessmeNt of volCanorelated multi-hazard and multi-risk at Mount EtnA) and they have been effectively employed in risk assessment for built-up areas and lifelines. The risk analyses were conducted for lava flow, tephra fall and volcanic earthquake hazards. Risk scenarios were assessed at different spatial scales, from thelocal one (at the resolution of the census track) to the sub-regional scale, defined as the union of some municipalities. Probabilistic damage scenarios were calculated with the aim of conducting a multi-hazard risk analysis, estimating direct losses in terms of structural damage, casualties and loss of functionality. A few examples of risk assessment are presented here to test the last step of the whole process developed in PANACEA