A target-based, multi-hazard assessment approach as a tool for supporting decision-making in volcanic areas: a case study in Mt. Etna, Italy

Abstract

Multi-hazard assessment aims at evaluating the potential impacts of various natural and humaninduced hazards in a given area of interest and time period. The analysis can include hazards of different nature – such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, floods, landslides, and industrial accidents – considering their interdependencies and cumulative effects. Multi-hazard assessments can provide critical insights into the potential impact of multiple hazards, enabling decision makers to adopt a wider view of the problem with respect to the approach of analyzing single hazards independently. Volcanoes are interesting targets for implementing multi-hazard analyses because they are intrinsically a multi-hazard source due to the variety of phenomena usually related to volcanic eruptions (e.g. volcano seismicity, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, etc.). This paper presents a target-based approach for multi-hazard analysis at Etna volcano (Italy) in which the output of probabilistic single hazard assessment can be harmoniously integrated and used for assessing a wide number of scenarios. The findings underscore the advantages of adopting such a kind of approach for supporting decision makers when using the results of multiple probabilistic hazardsassessments for performing tasks of planning, mitigation, or emergency preparedness. This work has been performed in the framework of the INGV project “Pianeta Dinamico” – PANACEA, a project developed for implementing multi-hazard and multi-risk assessments at Etna volcano