Monopoly Politics 2024

Abstract

FairVote has conducted the Monopoly Politics project in each Congressional election cycle since 1997.Monopoly Politics projects the results of every congressional district up to two years in advance, demonstrating that partisanship is the primary factor determining electoral outcomes, dwarfing other factors like local issues and candidate strength. The result is a polarized system where candidates are rewarded for adopting hyper-partisan platforms, particularly in hyper-partisan districts, instead of championing inclusive policies and bipartisan compromise that benefit all. Our 2024 projections suggest that 85% of seats are "safe" for one party, and another 9% favor one party, leaving only 6% of seats as true toss-ups. The 85% share of safe seats is the highest in the 25-year history of Monopoly Politics. At FairVote, we think outside the box. We promote legislative reform that prevents gerrymandering and improves equal voting power and fair representation in multi-winner districts. FairVote is working to end single-winner congressional districts. To end redistricting battles for good, we must reimagine how we elect our representatives