Local Standards, Behavioral Adjustments, and Welfare: Evaluating California\u27s Ocean-Going Vessel Fuel Rule

Abstract

We examine how behavioral adjustments by regulated vessels affect welfare outcomes of a local fuel sulfur standard targeting particulate matter pollution from maritime transport. Our analysis combines one-minute scale data of vessel locations with location-specific marginal damages to obtain voyage-level measures of welfare outcomes. Exploiting the introduction of California\u27s Ocean-Going Vessel Fuel Rule, we find sharp reductions in fuel consumption in the regulated area and a considerable emission spillover in unregulated waters. Despite these adjustments, the rule generates net benefits of close to $1 billion over 29 months because the emission spillovers occur in low marginal damage areas