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Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

By Paul Goodwin, M. Sinan Gönül and D. Önkal

Abstract

Forecasting support systems (FSSs) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: (i) factors that influence the levels of users' stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of interval forecasts, (ii) the extent to which stated trust is associated with users' modifications of the provided forecasts, and (iii) the consequences of these modifications for the calibration of the interval forecasts. Stated trust was influenced by the levels of noise in time series and whether a trend was present but was unaffected by the presence or absence of point forecasts. It was also higher when the intervals were framed as 'best-case/worst-case' forecasts and when the FSS provided explanations. Absence of trust was associated with a tendency to narrow the provided prediction intervals, which reduced their calibration

Year: 2013
DOI identifier: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.08.001
OAI identifier: oai:opus.bath.ac.uk:33620

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