Aggregation of Coherent Experts' Opinions: A Tractable Extreme-Outcomes Consistent Rule

Abstract

The paper defines a consensus distribution with respect to experts' opinions using a multiple quantile utility model. We show that the Steiner Point (R. Schneider, Isr J Math 2: 241-249, 1971) is the representative consensus probability. The new rule for aggregation of experts' opinions, which can be simply evaluated by the Shapley value, is prudential and coherent

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Archivio della Ricerca - Università degli Studi di Siena

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Last time updated on 13/04/2017

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