A simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic subjects aged 40\u201349 years

Abstract

Abstract Background Limited data are available for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic individuals aged 40\u201349 years. We aimed to identify risk factors and develop a simple prediction model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in these persons. Methods Clinical data were collected on 2781 asymptomatic subjects aged 40\u201349 years who underwent colonoscopy for routine health examination. Subjects were randomly allocated to a development or validation set. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictors of advanced colorectal neoplasm. Results The prevalence of overall and advanced colorectal neoplasm was 20.2 and 2.5% respectively. Older age (45\u201349 years), male sex, positive serology of Helicobacter pylori , and high triglyceride and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels were independently associated with an increased risk of advanced colorectal neoplasm. BMI (body mass index) was not significant in multivariable analysis. We developed a simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm (range 0\u20139). A cutoff of \u22654 defined 43% of subjects as high risk for advanced colorectal neoplasm (sensitivity, 79%; specificity, 58%; area under the receiver operating curve\u2009=\u20090.72) in the validation datasets. Conclusion Older age (45\u201349 years), male sex, positive serology of H. pylori , high triglyceride level, and low HDL level were identified as independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasm