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Spatial Price Analysis Incorporating Rate of Trade: Methods and Application to United States–China Soybean Trade

By Shengfei Han and Catherine A. Durham

Abstract

A regime-switching model for analysis of market integration has been developed that incorporates rate of trade information. An application of the methods to United States–China soybean trade demonstrates that the extended trade information allows better interpretation of market conditions. While the empirical results show that China’s reform efforts since mid 1990s toward an open market have greatly improved United States–China soybean markets integration, about 40% of nontransitional disequilibrium occurrences likely indicate infrastructural limits such as the lack of information availability and limited competition. The United States–China price linkage is observed to be closer after China’s World Trade Organization membership. The link has also been found relatively slack during the South American soybean harvest.China, futures markets, market integration, regime switching, soybeans, World Trade Organization, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, F15, G13, Q11,

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