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Predicting the Geography of House Prices

By Bernard Fingleton

Abstract

Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate shortterm ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.new economic geography, real estate prices, spatial econometrics, panel data, prediction

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