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The South Asian Phillips Curve: Assessing the Gordon Triangle

By Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani and Amber Osman


One of the key drivers for the policy makers is the tie-up between price inflation and unemployment. In relevance to the economic theories in yester years, Phillips Curve has witnessed negative relationship between inflation and unemployment in many economies. This has an implication that if government seeks to reduce the unemployment then the inflation goes up means if it wants to relish the lower unemployment then it has to bear the burden and consequences of inflation. This paper in distinction investigates the Phillips Curve in connection with the Gordon Triangle for the South Asian Countries i.e. Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The systematic investigation is based on historical thirty years of the rates of inflation and unemployment for the countries outlined. The split analysis of each country highlights the relationship between inflation and unemployment, which is positive for Pakistan and negative for Bangladesh, while no relationship has been observed between the two variables (no Phillips curve) for India and Sri Lanka. The negative impact of unemployment on inflation is actually the confirmation of Phillips Curve, which is indentified for Bangladesh while the positive association between the unemployment and inflation (Stagflation) is also observed, which is the confirmation of Gordon triangle empirically observed and identified for Pakistan.Inflation, Unemployment, Phillips Curve, Gordon Triangle

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