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2011 Outlook of the U.S. and World Corn and Soybean Industries, 2010-2020

By Richard D. Taylor and Won W. Koo

Abstract

This report evaluates the United States and world corn and soybean markets for the 2010-2020 period using the Global Corn and Soybean Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Corn-based ethanol production has influenced United States corn industry. As long as the production of corn-based ethanol remains strong, corn prices will likely remain at a level higher than the long term average. However, changes in the U.S. Federal government subsidies or mandates could significantly impact the world corn market. Under the current assumptions in the model, corn price is expected to remain in a range between $4.68 and $5.35 per bushel. Chinese soybean import is the leading factor influencing the world soybean market. China currently imports 65% of soybeans trade in the world market, and that is expected to increase to about 70% by 2020. Major exporters will continue to be the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. However both Brazil and Argentina could increase exports while U.S. exports will remain at the current level. Soybean prices are expected to remain strong but slowly decrease to about $9.82 by 2020.Crop Production/Industries, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Production Economics, corn, soybeans, production, exports, consumption, ethanol, ending stocks,

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