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Incomplete markets, ambiguity, and irreversible investment

By Jacco J.J. Thijssen

Abstract

The problem of irreversible investment with idiosyncratic risk is studied by interpreting market incompleteness as a source of ambiguity over the appropriate no-arbitrage discount factor. The maxmin utility over multiple priors framework is used to model and solve the irreversible investment problem. Multiple priors are modeled using the notion of [kappa][hyphen (true graphic)]ignorance. This set-up is used to analyze finitely lived options. For infinitely lived options the notion of constant [kappa][hyphen (true graphic)]ignorance is introduced. For these sets of density generators the corresponding optimal stopping problem is solved for general (in-)finite horizon optimal stopping problems driven by geometric Brownian motion. It is argued that an increase in the set of priors delays investment, whereas an increase in the degree of market completeness can have a non-monotonic effect on investment.Irreversible investment Idiosyncratic risk Ambiguity

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