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Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China

By Michael Hübler

Abstract

This paper introduces a mechanism of international technology diffusion via FDI and imports into recursive-dynamic CGE modeling for climate policy analysis. As a novel feature, the mechanism distinguishes spillovers from foreign do domestic capital within sectors and across sectors within the production chain. The paper applies the mechanism to the analysis of a contraction and convergence type climate policy focusing on China. The mechanism of international technology diffusion leads to an increase in China's energy productivity an a decline in China's economic growth rates in a convergence process. In this case, inter-regional emissions trading could (more than) compensate China's welfare losses due to climate policy. Otherwise, China's welfare losses due to climate policy could be significant.Technology diffusion Technology transfer Climate policy Trade FDI China

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