Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU

Abstract

This study analyses the dynamic effects of specific macroeconomic variables, i.e. housing loan rates, inflation, employment, and money supply, on the price of new houses sold in Greece. An error correction vector autoregressive (ECVAR) model is used in modelling the impact of the above macroeconomic variables on housing price. The results obtained through impulse response functions suggest that housing prices respond to all macroeconomic variables under consideration. Variance decompositions show that the housing loan rate is the variable with the highest explanatory power over the variation of housing price, followed by inflation and employment, while money supply does not seem to show any substantial impact.