Location of Repository

The development of 'for experts systems' as heuristic reasoning platforms in risk decision support: a consideration of tool design, technology transfer and compatability with Bayesian decision analysis

By J. G. Arthur

Abstract

This work considers the creation of two risk and decision support systems, one for the National Air Traffic Services of the UK and one for Unilever, a multi-national. Their development contributes to risk decision science in the area of decision support in particular. This contribution is based on the development real-life systems, it has three key elements. One, it addresses the fact that, for practical environments like these, the science of risk and decisions is insufficiently resolved to be accepted and easily used. Two, the systems share an arena with subjective Bayesian decision analysis. The benefits of a hybrid form of the two approaches to generate higher levels of user acceptance and organisational transfer is discussed. Three, they take the unique approach of being 'for experts' systems rather than 'expert systems'. This approach offers a number of benefits to applied user communities. These include: a decision support system which remains grounded within the reasoning world view of the decision makers; an expansion and refinement of the existing 'natural heuristics' that decision makers use currently; a scoring and visualisation environment which is both fast and flexible but allows for, previously unavailable, levels of reasoning transparency and comparison. Taken in total the combination of the tool design, the heuristic artefacts within them and their influence on the hosts organisations, the two systems have proven they can provide an effective and valued 'heuristic reasoning platform' for risks and issues. A future research direction is to explore ways in which the highly transferable heuristic artefacts in these systems, particularly measurement and data manipulation, might be strengthened via hybridisation with more powerful, but less transferred, formal systems like Bayes decision analysis

Topics: QA
OAI identifier: oai:wrap.warwick.ac.uk:1116

Suggested articles

Preview

Citations

  1. (2006). 50,123 - 129.1988 (in O'Hagan et al,
  2. (1981). Acceptable Risk. New York: doi
  3. (1985). Action-control: From cognition to behavior (pp. 11- 39). doi
  4. (1996). at a turning point? Journal of risk research, doi
  5. (2004). Conjunction Fallacy. In doi
  6. (1991). De Finetti, B., Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment. Vol 1. J. Wiley and sons. doi
  7. (1988). Decision Analysis A Bayesian Approach. Chapman and Hall. doi
  8. (2006). Decision Analysis for doi
  9. (1988). Decision Making. doi
  10. (2004). Dirty: A review of action against toxic products in
  11. (2006). Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study. doi
  12. (1991). Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement. A Practical Guide. doi
  13. (1989). European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation. Investigating the'Air Traffic Complexity: Potential impacts on workload and costs. EEC Note No. 11/00 project GEN-4-E2.2000
  14. frugal, and rational: How rational norms explain behaviour. Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes. doi
  15. (2002). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment doi
  16. (1990). Influence Diagrams, Belief Nets and Decision Analysis, Wiley. doi
  17. (1978). Judged frequency of lethal events. doi
  18. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. doi
  19. (1997). Mad Cows and Mothers Milk: The perils of poor risk communication. doi
  20. Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Making Processes.
  21. (2005). Power Hungry: Six reasons to regulate global food corporations. Action Aid International.
  22. (1985). Pragmatic Reasoning Schemas', Cognitive Psychology 17: 391 - 416 (Oaksford and Chater doi
  23. (1997). Rationality the fast and frugal 320 way. In doi
  24. (1993). Reasoning theories and bounded rationality. In doi
  25. (1989). Requisite Decision Modelling For Technological Projects. Vleck, Ch., Cvetkovitch, G. (eds) Social Decision Methodology for Technological Projects. 95 -110. Klewer Academic. doi
  26. Risk Perception and Communication Unplugged. Twenty years of 321 process. Risk Analysis, doi
  27. (1996). Risk Perception and Symptom Reporting. Risk Analysis, doi
  28. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity (translated by Mark Ritter). doi
  29. (1992). Study Group on Risk Assessment, Analysis, Perception and Management. Royal Society, doi
  30. (1975). Tardiff (Eds). The Analysis of Perceived Risks. doi
  31. The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice. doi
  32. (2000). The perception of risk. London: Earthscan;
  33. The probabilistic approach to human reasoning. Trends in Cognitive Sciences. doi
  34. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. McGraw-Hill Inc. doi
  35. (1982). Value Focussed Thinking.
  36. (2002). World Health Organisation (2002). World Health Report doi

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.