Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking
in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment.
Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including
dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system
and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a
few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect
of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our
approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios
with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first
application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows
how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can
be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future.
By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of
uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that
climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking
decisions in water management
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