Policies for biodefense revisited: the prioritized vaccination process for Smallpox

Abstract

Handling bioterror events that involve contagious agents is a major concern in the war against terror, and is a cause for debate among policymakers about the best response policy. At the core of this debate stands the question which of the two post-event policies to adopt: mass vaccination-where maximum vaccination capacity is utilized to uniformly inoculate the entire population, or trace (also called ring or targeted) vaccination-where mass vaccination capabilities are traded off with tracing capabilities to selectively inoculate only contacts (or suspected contacts) of infective individuals. We present a dynamic epidemic-intervention model that expands previous models by capturing some additional key features of the situation and by generalizing some assumptions regarding the probability distributions of inter-temporal parameters. The model comprises a set of difference equations. The model is implemented to analyze alternative response policies. It is shown that a mixture of mass and trace vaccination policies-the prioritized vaccination policy-is more effective than either of the two aforementioned policies.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited