Long term forecasting of natural gas production

Abstract

Natural gas is an important energy source for power generation, a chemical feedstock and residential usage. It is important to analyse the future production of conventional and unconventional natural gas. Analysis of the literature determined conventional URR estimates of 10,700–18,300 EJ, and the unconventional gas URR estimates were determined to be 4250–11,000 EJ. Six scenarios were assumed, with three static where demand and supply do not interact and three dynamic where it does. The projections indicate that world natural gas production will peak between 2025 and 2066 at 140–217 EJ/y (133–206 tcf/y). Natural gas resources are more abundant than some of the literature indicates