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Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

By Takayuki Takeshita

Abstract

This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them

Topics: air pollutants, road transport, global energy system model, LCC:Public aspects of medicine, LCC:RA1-1270, LCC:Medicine, LCC:R, DOAJ:Public Health, DOAJ:Health Sciences
Publisher: Molecular Diversity Preservation International
Year: 2011
DOI identifier: 10.3390/ijerph8073032
OAI identifier: oai:doaj.org/article:b2dd1d205dcf48d2b56184cd7907b20f
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