Bayesian Animal Survival Estimation

Abstract

We examine the Bayesian approach to estimating parameters associated with animal survival on the basis of data arising from mark recovery and recapture studies. We begin by outlining the general Bayesian approach to statistical modelling and then discuss how MCMC algorithms can be used for Bayesian inference. Sufficient detail is provided so that readers who wish to employ the Bayesian approach in this field can do so with ease. An example of BUGS code is also provided. We provide several examples, beginning with a discussion of band-return models and examining data gathered from observations of blue winged teal (Anas discors), ringed as nestlings. We then look at open population recapture models, focusing on the CormackJolly -Seber model, and examine this model in the context of a data set on European dippers (Cinclus cinclus). Keywords: Band-return; Bayesian analysis; BUGS; capture-recapture; Cormack-JollySeber; Gibbs sampler; Metropolis Hastings algorithm; product-multinomial; ring-..