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Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences ❢c World Scientific Publishing Company TRADER DYNAMICS IN A MODEL MARKET

By Neil F. Johnson, Michael Hart, Pak Ming Hui and Dafang Zheng


We explore various extensions of Challet and Zhang’s Minority Game in an attempt to gain insight into the dynamics underlying financial markets. First we consider a heterogeneous population where individual traders employ differing ‘time horizons ’ when making predictions based on historical data. The resulting average winnings per trader is a highly non-linear function of the population’s composition. Second, we introduce a threshold confidence level among traders below which they will not trade. This can give rise to large fluctuations in the ‘volume ’ of market participants and the resulting market ‘price’. 1

Year: 1999
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