Future demand for social care, 2005 To 2041: projections of demand for social care for older people in England: report to the Strategy Unit (Cabinet Office) and the Department of Health

Abstract

This paper presents projections of demand for social care and disability benefits for older people (aged 65 and over) in England to 2041 and associated future expenditure. The projections were produced using an updated and expanded version of the Personal Social Services Research Unit’s (PSSRU) long-term care projections model. The version of the model used here has a base year of 2005 and incorporates the 2006-based official population projections. This set of projections was commissioned jointly by the Department of Health (DH) and the Strategy Unit (Cabinet Office) (SU). The projections presented in this paper are an updated version of those discussed in Wittenberg et al (2006). They cover publicly and privately funded social care –assessments, community-based services and residential care. They also cover disability benefits relevant for care – attendance allowance (AA) and disability living allowance (DLA) care component. They do not cover supported housing because of lack of suitable data, nor do the projections reported here cover health care which was not part of the remit