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Depopulation After Unification? Population Prospects for East Germany, 1990-2010

By Rainer Münz and Ralf E. Ulrich

Abstract

East Germany is currently experiencing a fundamental demographic change. Between 1989 and 1993 it lost 1 million people due to migration. Births and marriages declined by 65 percent. Is this region facing further depopulation in the coming decades? This study examines the prospects for future population development in East Germany until the year 2010. The authors assume that the high level of net emigration of the years 1989-92 was a unique phenomenon. Net emigration from East Germany has already substantially declined. After 2000 a migration balance of zero is assumed. The birth decline should be recognized as a reflection of increased existential risks due to changes in the economic and social system. On the other hand, it reflects the beginning of an adjustment to the West German age pattern of fertility. A portion of the births postponed during the last years will be compensated for in the future. The total fertility rate will probably remain very low until the end of the 1990s before increasing again. Projections indicate a further population decline in East Germany: from 1990 to 2010, total population is expected to decline by about 14 percent. In some regions the decline will b

Year: 2011
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.198.3723
Provided by: CiteSeerX
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