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4 Managing the Recent Commodity Price Cycle THE PAST FEW YEARS HAVE SEEN SHARP VARIAtions



in primary commodity prices. Energy prices were especially volatile. Crude oil prices rose 74 percent from early 1994 through the end of 1996, then fell 56 percent by the end of 1998, and in 1999 recovered nearly the entire decline of the previous two years. Average non-oil commodity prices rose by 46 percent from the monthly low in mid-1993 to mid-1997, and then dropped 30 percent by late 1999. The variation of individual commodity prices was sharper still. Such volatility poses real challenges for developing countries that depend on primary commodities for a substantial share of their export revenues. Countries where consumptio

Year: 2011
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