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Fixed-term Contracts and the Duration Distribution of Unemployment”, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, Discussion Paper n

By Maia Güell, David Jaeger, Stepan Jurajda, Marco Manacorda, Alan Manning, Steve Nickell, Barbara Petrongolo, Merxe Tudela and Ernesto Villanueva


In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced …xed-term contracts. Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studies the implications of such reforms for the duration distribution of unemployment, with particular emphasis on the changes in the duration dependence. I estimate a parametric duration model using crosssectional data drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 1980 to 1994 to analyze the chances of leaving unemployment before and after the introduction of …xed-term contracts. I …nd that duration dependence has increased since such reform. Semi-parametric estimation of the model also shows that for long spells, the probability of leaving unemployment has decreased since such reform

Topics: cross-sectional data, duration model, turnover. JEL Classi…cation codes, C41, J63, J64
Year: 2001
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