The Office of Naval Research in a feasibility study of a Mobile Offshore Base (MOB) has proposed several concepts for very large ocean structures and will make risk informed assessments of alternative concepts. Using the MOB as a case study, this paper provides a methodology for cost and schedule risk-based decision analysis of alternative MOB hull construction concepts. During risk analysis, cognitive, vague or aleatory uncertainty can be handled using fuzzy sets and logic in many modeling scenarios. Stochastic modeling and analysis is mandated in cases of probabilistic, ambiguous or epistemic uncertainty. This paper uses a methodology for fuzzy-stochastic risk-based decision analysis of alternative MOB hull construction concepts and demonstrates fuzzy set quantification of MOB subjective information. The use of Bayes Theorem for updating the state-of-knowledge of MOB cost and schedule information as it is piecewise accumulated is also discussed
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