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Risk based approach for long-term plan of coastal flood defences:

By A Vietnam Case, Cong V. Mai A and Han Vrijling B


Abstracts: This paper aims at investigation of safety aspects of coastal flood defence system and determination of safety standard for a long-term plan of the system on basic of acceptable levels of risk. Acceptable risk is strongly related with the acceptable probability of failure and the acceptable amount of damage. In general agreement has been made in the literature and in regulatory circles that risk should at least be judged from two points of view. The first point of view is that of the individual, who decides to undertake an activity weighing the risks against the direct and indirect personal benefits. The first point of view leads to the personally acceptable level of risk or the acceptable individual risk, defined in as “the frequency at which an individual may be accepted to sustain a given level of harm from the realisation of specified hazards”. The specified level of harm is narrowed down to the loss of life in many practical cases. The second point of view is that of the society, considering the question whether an activity is acceptable in terms of the risk involved for the total population. This risk analysis framework is applied for a case of coastal flood defences in Vietnam, a country which has its coastlines of about 3000 kilometers, with deltaic coastal areas to a distance of about 20 km from the coastlines is mainly protected by the sea dikes. As from practical situation it seems that the actual dike system is not sufficient to withstand the sea loads. An accurate assessment of actual safety of the Vietnamese coastal defences an

Topics: Safety assessment, risk analysis, sea dikes, acceptable risk
Year: 2011
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