with several members of the “Economic Analysis and Forecasting Department ” at the Banco de España. We would also like to thank, without implicating, Samuel Hurtado, Gabriel Perez-Quiros and Alberto Urtasun for comments and suggestions at the earliest stage of the work. DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this paper are the author’s, not those of Banco de España. Documentos de Trabajo. N.º 1037 2010 The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and fi nance. All papers have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international environment. The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem. The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the INTERNET at the following website
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