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International Black Tea Market Integration and Price Discovery.

By Kalu Arachchillage, Senarath Dhananjaya, Bandara Dharmasena, Kalu Arachchillage, Senarath Dhananjaya, Bandara Dharmasena, John R. Moroney David, A. Gene Nelson, Kalu Arachchillage Senarath Dhananjaya B and Ara Dharmasena


Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. David A. Bessler In this thesis we study three basic issues related to international black tea markets: Are black tea markets integrated? Where is the price of black tea discovered? Are there leaders and followers in black tea markets? We use two statistical techniques as engines of analysis. First, we use time series methods to capture regularities in time lags among price series. Second, we use directed acyclic graphs to discover how surprises (innovations) in prices from each market are communicated to other markets in contemporaneous time. Weekly time series data on black tea prices from seven markets around the world are studied using time series methods. The study follows two paths. We study these prices in a common currency, the US dollar. We also study prices in each country’s local currency. Results from unit root tests suggest that prices from three Indian markets are not generated through random walk-like behavior. We conclude that the Indian markets are not weak form efficient. However, prices from all non-Indian markets cannot be distinguished from random walk-like behavior. These latter markets are weak for

Year: 2003
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