Location of Repository

Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree

By Leonard A. Smith and James A. Hansen

Abstract

Uncertainty in the initial condition is one of the factors that limits the utility of single-model-run predictions of even deterministic nonlinear systems. In practice, an ensemble of initial conditions is often used to generate forecasts with the dual aims of 1) estimating the reliability of the forecasts and 2) estimating the probability distribution of the future state of the system. Current rank histogram ensemble verification techniques can only evaluate scalars drawn from ensembles and associated verification; a new method is presented that allows verification in high-dimensional spaces, including those of the verifications for 10^6 dimensional numerical weather prediction forecasts

Topics: G Geography (General), GE Environmental Sciences
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Year: 2004
DOI identifier: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132
OAI identifier: oai:eprints.lse.ac.uk:16918
Provided by: LSE Research Online
Download PDF:
Sorry, we are unable to provide the full text but you may find it at the following location(s):
  • http://www.ametsoc.org/pubs/jo... (external link)
  • http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/16918... (external link)
  • Suggested articles


    To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.