Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

Compression or expansion of disability?: forecasting future disability levels under changing patterns of diseases.

By Carol Jagger, R. Matthews, N. Spiers, C. Brayne, Adelina Comas-Herrera, T. Robinson, James Lindesay and P. Croft


This is a research paper for the Wanless Social Care Review, the outcome of which was the report, Securing Good Care for Older People (King's Fund, 2006)

Topics: HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
Publisher: King’s Fund
Year: 2006
OAI identifier:
Provided by: LSE Research Online

Suggested articles


  1. (2001). 100 N u m b e r o f d i s a b l e d o l d e r p e o p l e ( t h o u s a n d s ) doi
  2. (2015). 2 Prevalence decreases by 2 per cent per year from 2011, transition rates from independent to disabled decrease by 10 per cent from 2011, and transition rates from independent to death decrease by 5 per cent from doi
  3. 65–74 years Total population doi
  4. (1975). A practical method for grading the cognitive state of patients for the clinician’. doi
  5. (2004). Adult obesity and the burden of disability throughout life’. doi
  6. (1980). Aging, natural death and the compression of morbidity’. doi
  7. (2000). An American model predicts a three- to fourfold increase in prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) between
  8. C (2005).’Does blood pressure lowering treatment prevent dementia or cognitive decline in patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease?’ doi
  9. (2001). CFAS includes very few older people from ethnic minorities and over the next 20 years these will form an increasing part of the older population as the large younger cohorts age.
  10. (1982). Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population’. doi
  11. (1994). Chronic conditions that lead to functional limitation in the elderly’. doi
  12. (2004). Chronic diseases, locomotor activity limitation and social participation in older women: cross-sectional survey of British Women’s Heart and Health Study’. Age and Ageing, doi
  13. (2005). Clegg A doi
  14. (1998). Cognitive function and dementia in six areas of England and Wales: the distribution of MMSE and prevalence of GMS organicity level in the MRC CFA Study’. Psychol Med,v o l 28, doi
  15. (2004). Disability, arthritis and body weight among adults 45 years and older’. doi
  16. (2002). Donepezil and rivastigmine in the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease: a best evidence synthesis of the published data on their efficacy and cost effectiveness (provisional record)’. doi
  17. (2005). Effects of galantamine on Activities of Daily Living in Alzheimer’s Disease: evidence from six randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trials’. Res Pract Alzheimer’s Dis,
  18. (2006). Expenditure on Social Care for Older People to 2026: Projected financial implications of the Wanless Report. Appendix, Wanless Social Care Review. London: King’s Fund.
  19. (1999). Gains in health expectancy from the elimination of diseases among older people’. doi
  20. (1998). Genetic, cultural or socio-economic vulnerability? Explaining ethnic inequalities in health’.
  21. (2005). Health changes among Swedish oldest old: prevalence rates from doi
  22. (2005). Life-years gained from modern cardiological treatments and population risk factor changes in England and Wales, doi
  23. (2000). Osteoarthritis: new insights. Part 1: the disease and its risk factors’.
  24. (1996). Physical function and perceived health: cohort differences and interrelationships in older people’. doi
  25. (1994). POHEM – a framework for understanding and modelling the health of human populations’.
  26. (1998). Preventing fatal diseases increases healthcare costs: cause elimination life table approach’. doi
  27. (1998). Prevention of dementia in randomised double-blind placebocontrolled systolic hypertension in Europe (Syst-Eur) doi
  28. (1998). Projections of Alzheimer’s disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset’. doi
  29. purpose of the review was to address two questions for each of the three diseases.
  30. (2004). Resolving inconsistencies in trends in old-age disability: report from a technical working group’. doi
  31. (2005). Risk factors for disability onset in the older population in England and Wales: findings from the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS)’. doi
  32. (1999). Risk factors for functional status decline in community-living elderly people: a systematic literature review’. Soc Sci Med, doi
  33. RL (1996).’Decreasing disability in the 21st century: the future effects of controlling six fatal and nonfatal conditions’. doi
  34. (2002). Securing Our Future Health: Taking a long-term view. Final report available online at:
  35. (1977). Self-administration of a questionnaire on chest pain and intermittent claudication’. doi
  36. (2001). Summary Measures of Population Health: Addressing the first goal of Healthy People doi
  37. (1994). The disablement process’. doi
  38. (1989). The health benefits of prevention: a simulation approach’.
  39. (2005). The impact of obesity on active life expectancy in older American men and women’. doi
  40. (1976). The Measurement of Need in Old People. Edinburgh: Scottish Home and Health Department.
  41. (2002). The public health impact of Alzheimer’s disease, 2000–2050: potential implication of treatment advances’. Annu Rev Pub Health, doi
  42. (1980). The rising pandemic of mental disorders and associated chronic diseases and disabilities’. doi
  43. (2003). The role of cerebrovascular disease in dementia’. doi
  44. (2005). Transition from independent to death decreases by 5 per cent for stroke and coronary heart disease from
  45. (2005). Trends in disability and disability-free life expectancy among elderly people in Spain: doi
  46. (2005). Trends in obesity and arthritis among baby boomers and their predecessors, doi
  47. (1998). Trends in Old Age Cohort Morbidity in Great Britain. London: Age Concern Institute of Gerontology.
  48. (2004). Trends in the health of the elderly’. doi
  49. (1992). Weight loss reduces the risk for symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in women. The Framingham Study’. doi
  50. (1990). What are the trends in disease prevalence and disease-specific disability (where known) from
  51. (2001). Year N u m b e r o f d i s a b l e d o l d e r p e o p l e ( t h o u s a n d s doi
  52. (2001). Year N u m b e r o f o l d e r p e o p l e ( t h o u s a n d s ) doi
  53. (2001). Year N u m b e r s w i t h d i s e a s e ( t h o u s a n d s ) doi
  54. years Total population doi
  55. (2001). years Total population 1,005 1,286 1,430 1,687 1,874 Disabled population 351 459 528 644 723 % disabled 34.87 35.66 36.90 38.17 38.57 All 65+ years Total population 8,455 9,208 10,188 11,195 11,950 Disabled population

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.