Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

The Under-Reporting of Property Crime: A Microeconometric Analysis.

By Ziggy MacDonald


In this paper we use data from the 1994 and 1996 British Crime\ud Surveys (BCS) to examine the influence of socio-economic factors on\ud the reporting of crime. Through probit estimation, we find that the\ud probability of a burglary being reported is significantly reduced if the\ud individual is currently unemployed or has been engaged in illicit activity\ud over the past year. We also find that, as anticipated, the reporting\ud likelihood is much increased if the incident involves a positively valued\ud loss. Using decomposition techniques, we also show that this result is\ud not driven by differences in mean sample characteristics. Our results\ud suggest that the difference between the recorded crime rate and the\ud true crime rate is not constant through the economic cycle. This may\ud have implications for models of crime and economic activity that make\ud use of recorded crime figures

Topics: reported crime, microeconometric model, decomposition
Publisher: Dept. of Economics, University of Leicester.
Year: 1998
OAI identifier:

Suggested articles


  1. (1988). An Empirical Model of Property Crime: Deterrence versus Redistribution, doi
  2. (1997). British Crime Survey (England and Wales): Technical report.
  3. (1995). British Crime Survey: Technical Report. London: OPCS Social Survey Division
  4. (1994). Crime and the Business Cycle in Post-War Britain,
  5. (1997). Crime and the Business Cycle in Post-War Revisited. University of Kent at Canterbury: The Structural and Cultural Determinants of Crime and Punishment, Working Paper
  6. (1995). Crime and the UK Economy.
  7. (1998). Crime and Unemployment: What do Empirical Studies Show?,
  8. (1996). Crime, Punishment and the Market for O¤ences, doi
  9. (1979). Crime, the Police and Criminal Statistics. doi
  10. (1994). Diminished Lifetime Substance Use Over Time: An Inquiry into Di¤erential Underreporting, doi
  11. (1980). Does Reporting Deter Burglars? - An Empirical Analysis of Risk and Return in Crime, doi
  12. (1983). Estimating the Economic Model of Crime: Employment versus Punishment E¤ects, doi
  13. (1989). Insuring Against Burglary Losses, Home O¢ce Research and Planning Unit Paper 52, London: Home O¢ce
  14. (1973). Male-Female Wage Di¤erentials in Urban labour doi
  15. (1973). Property Crime and Economic Behavior: Some Empirical Results,
  16. (1980). Property Crime Rates in the United States: A Macrodynamic Analysis, 1947-1977; with Ex Ante Forecasts for the Mid-1980s, doi
  17. (1981). Social Inequality and Predatory Criminal Victimisation: An Exposition and Test of a Formal Theory, doi
  18. (1979). Social trends and Crime Trends: A Routine Activity Approach, doi
  19. (1996). Socioeconomic Conditions and Property Crime: A Comprehensive Review and Test of the Professional Literature, doi
  20. (1998). The E¤ect of UnderReporting in Econometric Models of Criminal Activity.
  21. (1997). The E¤ect of UnderReporting in Statistical Models of Criminal Activity: Estimation of an Error Correction Model with Measurement Error, Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics, 97/3,
  22. (1990). Trends in Crime and Their Interpretation. A Study of Recorded Crime doi
  23. (1992). Underreporting of Abortion in Surveys of U.S. Women: doi
  24. (1985). Unemployment and Crime Rates in the Post-World War II U.S.: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, doi
  25. (1993). Unemployment and Property Crime: Not a Simple Relationship, doi

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.