The Barnsley by-election suggests that the collective health of the Coalition government is now in jeopardy. On current polls the Liberal Democrats will do badly in the May local elections

Abstract

British voters are famously erratic in how they choose candidates in by-elections. But Labour’s convincing win in Barnsley, poor performances by both the coalition parties, and the persisting push by English voters to support smaller parties, all suggest that the coalition government is already suffering badly from high inflation and unemployment, plus the climate of public sector cuts. Patrick Dunleavy and Chris Gilson show that last week’s “real votes’ taken together with recent opinion polls add up to a dismal picture, for Nick Clegg especially, but also David Cameron