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Aggregation of stochastic models

By Poul Hjorth


Dstl examines battle simulations based on stochastic evolution codes. One such code, known as SIMBAT (SIMple BATtle program) models the evolution of the battle as a sequence of turns in which the two sets of combating units move in a landscape. The units have objectives and act accordingly, they can acquire enemy units if lines-of-sight in the landscape permit this, and they can fire upon and disable enemy units with a certain probability. Based on the setting of a large number of parameters, and also on the outcome of pseudo-random decisions and engagements made in the course of the action, a final outcome of the battle is achieved. Figure 1 shows a SIMBAT screenshot. Figure 1: Screenshot from a SIMBAT battle. The setting is that of a ‘standard’ battle (see full report). The problem posed to the Study Group is the following: Is it possible to analyse and subsequently calculate a battle in terms of smaller subunits which can then be aggregated into the whole in a systematic fashion? This could potentially speed up the processing of a large number of simulations

Topics: Aerospace and defence
Year: 2007
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