Values and Prices of Main Oil Derivatives on the West European Market During 2006 and 2007

Abstract

Analizirajući međusobno kretanje cijena nafte i temeljnih naftnih derivata – premium benzina, dizela i teškog ulja za loženje koje vrijede na sjevero-zapadnom europskom tržištu u posljednje dvije godine, uz utvrđivanje njihovih odnosa – skreće se pozornost na karakteristične tendencije promjene odnosa tih cijena. Praćenjem kretanja odnosa cijena nafte i naftnih proizvoda (derivata) pomoću jednostavne obrade statističkih podataka u modelu koji je sastavni dio članka te poznavanjem istog, moguće je pouzdanije snalaženje pa i predviđanje kratkoročnih - dnevnih oscilacija cijena derivata temeljem dnevnih promjena cijena nafte. Metoda se temelji na praktički konstantnim srednjim aritmetičkim i geometrijskim odnosima cijena derivata prema cijeni nafte bez obzira na intenzivne oscilacije ovih cijena tijekom zadnjih godina. Eventualna odstupanja spomenutih odnosa (motorni benzin i dizelsko gorivo) objašnjiva su stvarnim promjenama odnosa njihovih tržnih vrijednosti temeljem vrlo postupne i trajne promjene odnosa ponude i potražnje, ali i proporcionalno slijede sve spekulativne financijske i burzovne utjecaje na cijenu nafte u promatranom periodu.Analysis of mutual movements of prices for oil and main oil derivatives – premium gasoline, diesel and heavy fuel oil applicable on the market of Northwest Europe in the last two whole years, as well as determination of relationships between them – draws the attention to characteristic tendencies of changed relationships between these prices. By monitoring the movement of relationships between prices for oil and oil derivatives through simple processing of statistical data according to the model which is the subject of this paper and based on its understanding, more reliable follow-up and even prediction of short-term – daily oscillations in prices of oil derivatives based on daily changes of oil prices, becomes possible. The method is based on practically constant average arithmetic and geometric relationships between the prices for oil derivatives and oil regardless of the intense oscillations of these prices in recent years. Possible deviations of above relationships (motor gasoline and diesel fuel) can be explained by the actual change in relationships of their market values based on very gradual and permanent change between supply and demand, which also proportionally follows all speculative financial and stock exchange impacts on the price of oil in the period under review