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台灣都市化與全球環境變遷交互影響與回應之研究---全球環境變遷與都市化對台灣景觀生態之交互影響與回應(I)

By 郭瓊瑩

Abstract

[[abstract]]2007 年是聯合國極地年,這是每五十年才舉辦一次之重大全球性跨國與跨領 域會議。今年之議題除了已發出全球氣候變遷之警訊外,更嚴正提出因氣候變遷 所造成之極地圈冰融、冰川後退等所引發之極地生態系之現狀危機。此外對於造 成變遷之力量如溫室氣體效應、熱島效應、歷史氣候變化之詮釋以及預測未來氣 候變遷之推力亦做了更明確之分析。而京都議定書之執行也引起各公約國及非公 約國之因應政策修訂。本研究在第一年(民國95 至96 年)已初步對台灣都市化 變遷做了二十年之追蹤,比對與套疊。第二年(民國96 至97 年)已進行對影響 因子之空間配置分析,並與各子計畫對土地使用、消費行為模式、土地覆蓋與環 境乾旱等進行交叉分析研究。截至現在(96 年12 月30 日)初步結論為: 1.台北、台中及高雄都會區之都會化現象最為明顯。 2.其與土地使用(科學園區之開發)、交通建設(北二高及高鐵、捷運之開 發)以及公路網之群聚有關鏈。 3.農地之消長除與政府綠化造林有關外,其消失與農地釋出及相關農村建設 與休閒遊憩開發有關。 4.都會邊際土地之擴張與農村散村化及田園社區之新生活價值觀與網路化 之生活形態有關。 承繼前二年之研究,第三年度將聚焦在97 年上半年對策略地區(大台北都 會區含基隆市、台北縣、桃園縣)之深入分析,同樣應用景觀生態學理論與工具, 包括:崁塊體指標、邊緣指標、形狀指標、平均鄰近指標、多樣性指標等,瞭解 台灣都會化過程中,地貌、植被、土地利用與人類居住格局相互作用的生態系統 所形成的異質性崁塊及特殊結構,進行更精細尺度之區域性分析以回饋對第二年 驅動力因素探討之驗證。 依據第二年持續研究之發現,下列議題將成為第三年研究返饋之重點: 預期影響 1.破碎化生態系 2.受威脅之河川水資源供給 3.農業糧食生產安全之威脅 4.環境健康之威脅 5.海岸人工化與海平面上升之威脅 6.海岸城市之威脅 7.文化資產之喪失 以策略地區而言,大台北都會帶包括核心城市(台北市、桃園市、基隆市、 板橋市、中和市、等)城郊發展帶(如蘆洲、新莊、汐止、八德、平鎮等)以 及都會邊緣農業交錯區,如:蘆竹、觀音、龍潭等,其最大衝擊為農業產值之 下降與喪失,生態網絡之斷裂,以及都市綠廊帶與風廊之阻斷。第三年度之研 究將運用相關社經資料進行間隙分析以驗證上述議題之起因以及其影響,並綜 合檢討該區域政府之相關土地利用發展政策,願景計畫以及中央政府之政策進 行下列對變遷之因應: 1.因應國際社團之行動 2.對國際碳交易之因應準備 3.都市化土地之成長策略 4.農地永續利用之控管 5.各地方政府應有之施政因應 6.生態系之修復 7.國土之開發策略與島嶼景觀生態網絡之建置 2007 is the “International Polar Year”. It is held every fifty years as a significant global and cross-disciplinary conference. Global climate change is the major focus of the conference, together with the “signs of change” of the polar ecosystem caused by the melting of the ice-caps, and also the retreating of the glaciers. Core concepts such as “forcing change”, “green-house effect”, “heat island effect”, “history of climate change” and forecasting future climate change will also be discussed. The Kyoto Protocol also figures prominently in the environmental policies of nations all over the world, whether or not they are signatories to the treaty. In the beginning stages of this project (2006-2007), we compared and mapped urbanization trends in Taiwan. In the next stage, to be completed between 2007 and 2008, we ran a spatial-allocation analysis of the “Driving Force”, and conducted a cross-analysis study against the sub-project on variables such as land use, consuming behavior pattern, land cover and drought. The results are as follows: 1. Taipei, Taichung and Kaoshiung are most distinct metro-areas. 2. Status as an ‘urban area’ is connected with: (1) land-use (e.g., science park development); (2) construction of transportation systems (North Highway II, High Speed Rail, and MRT) and (3) highway networks. 3. The disappearance of agricultural land is connected with: (1) the government’s greening and forest plantation policies; (2) the release of agricultural land; (3) the construction of rural villages and (4) the development of recreational areas. 4. The expansion of the “Urban Fringe area” is connected with scattered agricultural villages, life-style trends and the growing impact of technology in rural communities. 2008 will focus on depth analysis of strategic districts of Taipei Metro Area, including Keelung City, Taipei County, and Taoyuan County. The theory and approaches of Landscape Ecology such as Patch density, Edge Density Metrics, Shape Metrics, Nearest Neighbor Metrics, Diversity Metrics etc, will be applied to understand the Heterology Patch and special structure formed by the ecological system which incorporates “landform, vegetation coverage, land use and human living patterns”. Finally, we will conduct a district analysis to validate our hypotheses on the “Driving Force” (second year). According to the results of the spatial allocation analysis conducted between 2006- 2007, we will research the following in 2008: Expected Consequence 1. Disrupted Ecosystem 2. Threatened Fresh Water Supplies 3. Food Security 4. Threats to Health 5. Loss of Natural Coast Line & Rising Sea Levels 6. Coastal City at Risk 7. Cultural Heritage Losses The strategic districts are: Taipei Metro Area, including the core cities of Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Keelung City, BanChiao City, ChungHe City, Suburban Developing Areas such as LuChou, HsingChuang, ShiChi, BaDe, and PinCheng and the Metro-Fringe Areas or Urban-Rural Fringe Areas including LuChu, GuanYin, and LongTang. The biggest impact are the decline and loss of agricultural output value, the fragmentation of the ecological network and the associated green and wind shed corridors in urban areas. In 2008, we will conduct and economical social analyze to determine causal factors of the above mentioned topics. We will also conduct research on land-use development policies established by local governments, the vision plan and policies of the central government. Then, we will set forth the following “responding to change” actions: 1. International Action 2. Preparation for Carbon Trading 3. Growth Management for Urbanizing Land Use 4. Strict Control on Sustainable Rural Land Use 5. Local Commitment 6. Restoration for Disrupted Ecosystems 7. Initiation of National Land Spatial Development Strategy and Island-wide Landscape Ecological Networ

Topics: 全球環境變遷, 都市化, 都會邊緣, 混亂發展, 雜亂發展的景觀, 國家景觀生態網絡, 間隙分析
Year: 2009
OAI identifier: oai:http://ir.lib.pccu.edu.tw/:987654321/1928
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