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By 鄭祈全


[[abstract]]本研究為整合型計畫:「台灣都市化與全球環境變遷交互影響與回應」之子計畫, 擬以三年時間(第一年和第二年計畫已獲國科會補助),應用遙測、地理資訊系統等空間 資訊技術,針對台灣北部地區之土地使用變遷、環境乾旱與全球環境變遷之關係,進行 基礎性的監測、分析及評估等研究,包括(1)分析不同時空尺度下,土地使用對環境乾 旱之影響效應;(2)探討土地使用類型、氣候因子與環境乾旱之時空關係;(3)模擬土地 使用變遷、氣候變遷、環境乾旱及集水區流量之未來變化趨勢,並評估環境變遷與乾旱 現象之交互影響和回應關係。本年度為第三年計畫,研究方法係利用第二年計畫產生的 乾旱指標或蒸發散量為依變數,土地使用類型與氣候因子(溫度、雨量等)為自變數,供 建立乾旱關係模式。其次,應用Markov模式預測未來土地使用變遷及利用SRES氣候預設 情境模擬氣候變遷,並推估未來環境乾旱及蒸發散量的變化情形,之後再整合土地使用 變遷、氣候變遷、及蒸發散量之模擬結果,應用GWLF流量模式,推估未來短期、中期及 長期環境變遷下,集水區河川流量所遭受之衝擊,並結合光譜乾旱指標之結果,探討在 不同時空尺度下,環境變遷與乾旱之交互影響和回應關係。本項研究成果將提供政府制 定環境策略之參考。 This is one study under integrated projects titled “Interaction and response of Taiwan urbanization and global environmental change.” In this study, it is expected to spend three years (The 1st year and the 2nd year projects have been sponsored by the National Science Council. The period is from 2006/8/1 to 2008/7/31) to apply the spatial techniques such as remote sensing and geographic information system to monitor, analyze, and assess the relationship among urban land use/land cover, environmental drought, and global environmental change under different zoning systems and spatial/temporal scales at northern Taiwan. The content includes (1) analyzing the effect of land use/land cover on environmental drought under different zoning systems and spatial/temporal scales, (2) investigating the relationship among land use/land cover, environmental drought, and climate, (3) simulating the future change of land use/land cover, climate, environmental drought, and stream-flow, (4) assessing the interaction and response between environmental change and drought. This study is the third year project. The research methods include as follows. (1) The output of the 2nd year project will be use to establish the environmental drought model based on the regression analysis. (2) Markov and SRES models will be applied to simulate the land use/land cover change and climate change, respectively. Also, both derived results are then applied to predict the future environmental drought and evapotranspiration. (3) According to the simulated results of land use/land cover change, climate change and evapotranspiration, the GWLF model will be used to assess the impact of watershed stream-flow under different time periods. (4) Finally, the interaction and response between environmental change and drought will be investigated under different spatial/temporal scales. The result obtained from this study will be a reference for the government to set environmental strategie

Year: 2009
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