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Sustainable Development Modelling for the Energy Sector

By Andra Blumberga, Dagnija Blumberga, Gatis Bažbauers, Gatis Žogla and Ilze Burmistre


Sustainable residential energy consumption involves a complex, socially embedded and socially constructed market. A system dynamics approach has been used to explore the short, medium and long term impact of different national consumer-oriented energy efficiency policies in the building sector. In this paper the system dynamics model has been validated by a case study using historical data from a subsidy scheme and accompanying policy measures in Latvia. Simulation results show that national energy efficiency goals cannot be met by 2016 and the absence of major consumer-oriented policy tools slows down the diffusion process of energy efficiency projects. It also highlights that system dynamics has a high potential to be used for sustainable end-use energy policy planning at both national and sub-sectoral levels

Topics: Energy efficiency; Residential energy consumption; System dynamics modelling
Publisher: Elsevier Limited
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