In this article we examine whether subjective estimates of success probabilities explain
the effect of social origin, sex, and ethnicity on students’ choices between different school
tracks in Dutch higher education. The educational options analysed differ in level (i.e.
university versus professional college) and fields of study (i.e. science versus non-science).
First we analyse students’ self-assessed success probabilities for specific tracks in higher
education. We hypothesize that differences in demonstrated academic ability explain
these perceived success probabilities. Next, we test whether these success probabilities
contribute to explaining educational decisions and differentials herein with respect to
social background, sex, and ethnicity. We use the Dutch Participation in Higher Education
dataset wave 1995 and 1997 to answer our questions. Success probabilities differ across
social origins, between men and women, and across ethnic groups, even after controlling
for ability differences. Success probabilities contribute to the explanatory model for school
transition decisions which differ by field of study and level of schooling. They also help to
explain social origin and sex-based differentials in field choice, but not in level choice.
Ability is not a sufficient indicator for self-perceived success probabilities: success
probabilities explain educational differentials better than ability.
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