Current changes in the tropical hydrological cycle, including water vapour and precipitation, are\ud presented over the period 1979-2008 based on a diverse suite of observational datasets and\ud atmosphere-only climate models. Models capture the observed variability in tropical moisture while\ud reanalyses cannot. Observed variability in precipitation is highly dependent upon the satellite\ud instruments employed and only cursory agreement with model simulations, primarily relating to the\ud interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. All datasets display a positive\ud relationship between precipitation and surface temperature but with a large spread. The tendency for\ud wet, ascending regions to become wetter at the expense of dry, descending regimes is in general\ud reproduced. Finally, the frequency of extreme precipitation is shown to rise with warming in the\ud observations and for the model ensemble mean but with large spread in the model simulations. The\ud influence of the Earth’s radiative energy balance in relation to changes in the tropical water cycle are\ud discusse
To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.