From Kondratieff to Chaos: Some Perspectives on Long-Term and Short-Term Business Cycles

Abstract

The nature of short- and long-term business cycles is a topic of considerable interest to futurists, since the state of the economy affects the possibilities for dealing with so many other areas of interest, from pollution control to child care. In this article, which is based on a talk that the author gave at the World Future Society’s Sixth General Assembly in July 1989, he discusses the most recent ideas in both long- and short-term business cycle theory, and describes some of their interrelationships. One of the key connections between short- and long-term cycles is through industry, and the paper begins with a discussion of an industrial quality control issue