A biophysical model of corn yield: integrating climatic and social Determinants

Abstract

We estimate a model that accounts for both climatic and social determinants of corn yield in the United States. Climate variables are specified for periods that correspond to phenological stages of development. Social determinants include market conditions, technical factors, scale of production, and the policy environment. The model accounts for the historical and cross-sectional variation in yield, and the interpretation of coefficients is consistent with independent analyses of the climatic and social determinants. The hybrid model provides a framework for assessing the effect of, and adaptation to, climate change. Key words: adaptation, agriculture, climate change, corn, elasticity, phenology, yield. There is concern that the increasing concentra-tion of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will alter climate. The impact of climate change on economic systems is subject to considerable debate. Some argue that changes in the planet's chemical, physical, and biological systems will have a relatively small effect on economic activity (Nordhaus), while others argue that the impact will be large and potentially catastrophic (Daily et a1.). This wide range of estimates is generated by one point of agreement: relatively little is known regarding the impact of climate change on eco-systems linked to economic systems. Agriculture is a managed ecosystem that is critical to human well-being. As such, agricul-ture provides a portal through which climate change may have a significant impact on eco-nomic activity. Previous analyses of this impact examine the changes in yield that are generated The authors are associate professor and research assistant, respec