The logic of process tracing tests in the social sciences

Abstract

This article discusses process tracing as a methodology for testing hypoth-eses in the social sciences. With process tracing tests, the analyst combines preexisting generalizations with specific observations from within a single case to make causal inferences about that case. Process tracing tests can be used to help establish that (1) an initial event or process took place, (2) a subsequent outcome also occurred, and (3) the former was a cause of the latter. The article focuses on the logic of different process tracing tests, including hoop tests, smoking gun tests, and straw in the wind tests. New criteria for judging the strength of these tests are developed using ideas concerning the relative importance of necessary and sufficient conditions. Similarities and differences between process tracing and the deductive-nomological model of explanation are explored. Keywords causal inference, case studies, hypothesis testing, deductive-nomological model Analysts often seek to assess whether some occurrence was a cause of a particular outcome in a specific case; that is, they want to answer th