ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science

Abstract

events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997–1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO’s influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)cycle, a fluctuation between unusuallywarm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) con-ditions in the tropical Pacific, is the most prominent year-to-year climate variation on Earth. El Niño and La Niña typically recur every 2 to 7 years and develop in associatio