PROSPECTIVE BALANCE: LOSS AVERSION AND CONSISTENCY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Abstract

Prospective Balance in an interactionist systemic theory that utilizes the concepts of non-additivity and non-linearity to better explain the incidence of cooperation and conflict. The theory argues against neorealism in which the distribution of power in the international system purports to explain the phenomenon of interest. Balance theory is a manifestation of non-additivity, while attitudinal consistency is a manifestation of non-linearity. Balanced and imbalanced configurations comprise balance theory. Rational and irrational consistency comprise attitudinal consistency. In turn, cognitive (or unmotivated) biases and affective (or motivated) biases comprise irrational consistency. Both balance and attitudinal consistency serve as independent variables. The dynamics of prospect theory, in which states are risk acceptant for loss but risk averse for gain, and the dynamics of deterrence theory serve as intervening variables. Characteristic actor behaviors, identified as perceptual syndrome, intentional clarity, widespread loss aversion, and affective abandonment of rational consistency, comprise the outcomes to be explained. Because neorealism is predicated upon maximizin