Cadmus, EUI Research Repository

    Assessing minority mobilisation and representation

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    Work Package 5: New Knowledge on Tolerance and Cultural Diversity in EuropeThe ACCEPT PLURALISM project (2010-2013) is funded by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme, Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities. (Call FP7-SSH-2009-A, Grant Agreement no: 243837). Coordinator: Prof. Anna Triandafyllidou, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute

    New knowledge about Ireland

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    Work Package 5: New Knowledge on Tolerance and Cultural Diversity in EuropeIreland, an emigration state par excellence, was the last country in Western Europe to become an important destination for migrants. In the period from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s, Ireland transformed itself from one of the poorest EU countries with high levels of unemployment and emigration to a centre for high-tech industry and impressive growth rates. In the 1990s the country began receiving a significant number of immigrants for the first time in its history, and by 1996 immigration exceeded emigration. By the time of the 2011 Census, non-Irish nationals represented 12% (or 544,360) of the population and included 196 different nationalities.The ACCEPT PLURALISM project (2010-2013) is funded by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme, Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities. (Call FP7-SSH-2009-A, Grant Agreement no: 243837). Coordinator: Prof. Anna Triandafyllidou, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute

    Cost benefit analysis in the context of the energy infrastructure package

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    Each semester the THINK project publishes two research reports based on topics proposed by the European Commission.Topic 10QM-31-12-304-EN-CQM-31-12-304-EN-NThis report was produced as part of the THINK project. Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) has proven to be a useful tool to support the economic appraisal of important projects in many sectors. In the energy domain, a single CBA method has been proposed at EU level to evaluate and compare electricity transmission and storage projects from different countries, which is unprecedented anywhere in the world. The objective of this THINK report has been to advise the European Commission (DG Energy) on the development of this method in the context of the Energy Infrastructure Package. We provide recommendations for the scope of the analysis, as well as the calculation of the net benefit. We also discuss how the method can be used to rank projects. We conclude that the method that has been proposed by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) is an important step in the right direction, but it is still possible to improve. A key recommendation is that the project ranking should be primarily based on the monetized net benefit, and to calculate this net benefit, the CBA should concentrate on a reduced list of effects.The THINK project (2010-2013) is funded by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme, Strategic Energy Technology Plan. (Call FP7-ENERGY-2009-2, Grant Agreement no: 249736). Coordinator: Prof. Jean-Michel Glachant and Dr. Leonardo Meeus, Florence School of Regulation, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute

    From the Coup to the Escalation of Violence: The transition to democracy in Romania

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    Romania was the only example of violent regime change in the central and south eastern European milieu, with massive mobilizations both in favour and against change and the execution of the dictator. In other words, there seems to have been an attempted coup d'état in Romania, one that was successful thanks to the unplanned escalation of violence organized from below without any links to the intra-elite disputes. This process started locally in a community linked with the outside world able to draw on supportive networks. Contention quickly scaled up to the capital city and produced a vacuum of power as a result of the anti-Ceaușescu communists' decision to immediately topple and execute the dictator. This opened the way to a chaotic moment of violence that was not organized by supporters or opponents of the regime, but rather produced by the vacuum of power in a collapsed sultanistic totalitarian regime. The lack of international support for democratization, weak local civil society and unorganized violence allowed the neo-communists to settle in power. However, a revolution was already ongoing, notwithstanding the neo-communist elites' wish to merely modify the previous regime. This led to the emergence of a democratic setting.The research project 'Mobilizing for Democracy: Democratization Processes and the Mobilization of Civil Society' is funded by European Research Council (ERC) Advanced Grant. (Grant Agreeement no: 269136.

    Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2013 and 2014

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    • In 2013, the expansion of the world economy will be a bit stronger than in 2012. Growth in Asia should be more dynamic than in 2012, and the US economy appears to robustly withstand the restrictive and unstable US fiscal policy, thanks to a very expansionary monetary policy. • In spring 2013, the euro crisis is clearly less acute than in 2012. One indicator for this is that in February the liabilities of the Spanish and Italian central banks to the rest of the Eurosystem were by almost a quarter lower than at their maximum in August. Moreover, the inconclusive elections in Italy and the present crisis in Cyprus have only modestly raised risk premia for Italian government bonds, and premia for Spanish bonds stayed about constant. However, for the crisis of confidence in the euro not to return, it is crucial that signs of a stabilizing real economy in the southern member states become visible in the course of this year. • The consensus is for a swift return of the German economy to growth. Elsewhere, firms and households are, for good reasons, still uncertain and hence limit their investment and consumption. In the southern European countries, and probably also in France, the recession will not end at least before the second half of 2013. One relevant factor is that although financial conditions for banks have markedly improved, this improvement has not yet reached nonfinancial firms and private households in these countries. • Overall, we forecast euro area GDP to be -0.3 percent lower in 2013 than in 2012, a downward revision from the positive growth of 0.2% we expected in our last report. The situation should improve in 2014, with an expected GDP growth of about 1.3%. However, this will not be sufficient to lower the unemployment rate, which actually could further increase to about 12.6%. • In the current context of economic sluggishness, our inflation forecasts have slightly decreased, mostly in line with the updated ECB expectations. Our inflation expectations for 2013 have moderated to a y-o-y rate of 1.6%, and they remain subdued also in 2014, at about 1.4%. The likelihood for the ECB to cut interest rates has moderately increased

    Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2011 and 2012

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    The European Forecasting Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001 under the auspices of the European Commission.· High growth dynamics and demand coming from emerging markets will slow only modestly in the rest of 2011 and in 2012, but the intensification of the financial turmoil and the doubts about the ability of the European Union to contain the consequences of possible defaults will hamper world economic growth considerably in our forecasting horizon. · For the euro area, we expect GDP to grow by around 1.6% in 2011 and 0.8% in 2012, not enough to bring the unemployment rate back below 10% and substantially less for 2012 than in our Summer report. Many private households and firms will adopt a wait-and-see attitude while, to restore confidence in the euro area sovereign debt, fiscal policy will become even more restrictive. · Our industrial production forecast has also been revised downwards with respect to the Summer report, now we expect a growth rate of 3.7% in 2011 and 1.6% in 2012, mostly due to the relative deterioration of the euro area external demand. · Because of energy prices and aggregate demand moderation, our inflation forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are reduced to 2.6% and 1.3% respectively. · Lower inflation and growth forecasts, combined with the intensification of the financial turmoil and the announced restrictive fiscal policy in many euro area countries, make us suggest that the next interest rate decision of the ECB should be a fast and substantial cut, notwithstanding the September value for HICP inflation

    Getting past the WTO deadlock : The plurilateral option ?

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    The WTO’s Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations are blocked. After repeated attempts to make progress, trade ministers have called for exploring new approaches to negotiations. This has been interpreted by some as clearing the way for plurilateral negotiations between subsets of like-minded WTO members and that need not apply or benefit all WTO members. This paper discusses a number of questions that arise with respect to plurilateral agreements and argues that in light of the very low probability of new plurilateral agreements being accepted by WTO members the focus should be on the impact of preferential trade agreements and how these can be better accommodated in the multilateral trading system

    Justice in a globalizing world : resolving conflicts involving workers rights beyond the nation state

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    This paper focuses on two examples – first, the imposition of tariffs on tires made in China and exported to the United States, which culminated in a decision of World Trade Organization’s (WTO) appellate body to uphold the US tariffs, and, second, the development of the European law, especially the decisions of the Court of Justice of the European Union, on posted workers in the context of public procurement – in which labour concerns transcend the nation state’s borders and the relevant agents (states, municipalities, NGOs, trade unions, employers, industry associations) are in conflict outside the familiar space of the nation state. The examples refer to different markets – goods and capital, on the one hand, and services and labour, on the other, and they operate on different scales, the international in one case and the transnational (or regional) in the other. They also focus on qualitatively different governance regimes, which involve different constellations of political and social actors and different relationships between economic and social/political integration. Drawing on Fraser’s discussion of “abnormal justice”, a situation in which the traditional discourse and grammar of justice are being doubted, the paper juxtaposes the case studies in order to highlight three political dilemmas (“what”, “who”, and “how”) that arise in the context of abnormal justice and to illustrate how these dilemmas are interconnected. Although both cases exemplify the “what” question, the paper emphasizes the “who” and “how” dimensions of justice, arguing that if the process for resolving the conflict is fair, inclusive, and dynamically open to challenges, then its outcomes on distributive justice are more likely to be considered legitimate and persuasive

    Re-thinking economic development in the WTO

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    The disagreements between the old and new trade powers in the WTO on market access issues that have deadlocked the Doha Round are in part a reflection of the “special and differential treatment” that developing countries have historically pursued in the WTO. A re-thinking of that approach is in order. This paper argues for greater effort and new approaches to use the WTO as a mechanism to help developing countries to reduce the trade and transactions costs that prevent firms and farmers from benefitting from trade opportunities. What is needed are processes for regular dialogue, peer review and independent assessment of the impacts of domestic policies, with active participation by firms that operate in the country concerned, and a focus on identification of good practices and priorities for reform and public investment

    How does the European Union contribute to security?

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    The EU is not a sovereign state in the terms of either Weber or Schmitt. And it is mistake to treat it as if it were. Its major success in security is its contribution, with that of NATO, to the pacification of Europe since 1945, and to its stabilization since 1989. In the last decade its influence has brought stability to the Balkans. The EU is designed for neither force nor fraud; but outside its borders EU military and civilian operations have helped others improve order in their countries or regions. The EU’s ability to combine a non-threatening military, police or monitoring presence with aid is a strength; but to be effective this needs more often to be embedded in a political strategy. The Lisbon Treaty offers hope for this
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