Die deutsche Industrie im Strudel der US-Handelspolitik: Wie blicken Unternehmen auf Trump 2.0?

Im Rahmen der ifo Konjunkturumfragen im Juni 2025 wurden mehr als 1500 deutsche Unternehmen des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes zu ihrer Betroffenheit durch die neuen US-Zölle befragt. Zusätzlich erfasste die Umfrage ihre Erwartungen zur zukünftigen amerikanischen Handelspolitik sowie bereits eingeleitete oder geplante Investitions- und Strategieanpassungen. Mehr als 60% der befragten Unternehmen geben an, von den Trump-Zöllen negativ betroffen zu sein. Fast ebenso viele befürchten einen erhöhten Wettbewerbsdruck durch chinesische Unternehmen infolge der US-Handelspolitik. Rund ein Drittel erwartet, dass bis zum Ende der Amtszeit Trumps der US-Markt an Bedeutung für ihr Unternehmen verlieren wird. Gleichzeitig gehen viele Unternehmen von einer wachsenden Bedeutung des EU-Binnenmarkts aus. Die Wirtschaftspolitik der Trump-Regierung wirkt sich auch auf die Investitionspläne deutscher Unternehmen aus: Rund 30% der Unternehmen mit entsprechenden Plänen haben ihre US-Investitionen zeitlich verschoben. Etwa 15% haben ihre US-Investitionen sogar komplett gestrichen

Direct and spillover effects of an agricultural technology adoption program: Evidence from Bolivia

This study employs an experimental approach to estimate both the direct and indirect effects (i.e. spillovers) of an agricultural technology adoption program on small landholder farmers in Bolivia. Specifically, the evaluation focuses on the second phase of the "Creación de Iniciativas Agroalimentarias Rurales" (CRIAR) program, which aimed to increase agricultural productivity, income, and food security among smallholder farmers through technology adoption. Implementing a two-stage randomized experiment, the study uses instrumental variable (IV) analysis to measure the local average treatment effect (LATE) of the program. The survey sample includes 1,684 farmers, consisting of direct beneficiaries, contaminated control households, and pure control households. Findings reveal statistically significant direct effects on household income, total production value, sales, technology adoption, and crop diversification. The results also suggest that most of the direct effects intensify over time. Furthermore, the analysis confirms the presence of spillover effects, supporting the hypothesis that farmers residing near program beneficiaries receive indirect benefits

Hunger and malnutrition in a COVID-19 environment: What are the effects amidst rising food prices in sub-Saharan Africa?

The COVID-19 pandemic intensified existing structural challenges in Africa, including poverty, weak healthcare systems, and fragile agricultural supply chains. Consequently, examining its effects remains a critical area of study. This research investigates the effect of food prices on the prevalence of malnutrition in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. The findings indicate a significant long-term relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases, food prices, and the prevalence of undernourishment. Specifically, increases in food prices are associated with a rise in undernourishment rates over the long term. These results are corroborated by estimations using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). To mitigate malnutrition in the face of potential future health shocks, governments could create and operationalize food price stabilization funds to cushion against sharp increases in food prices. These funds can be used to subsidize key staples during periods of price volatility, ensuring affordability for vulnerable populations

Navigating Complexity: Firm Age and Multi-Project Participation of SMEs in Horizon 2020

This paper investigates the role of firm age in shaping the funding efficiency of Italian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) participating in Horizon 2020, the EU's flagship research and innovation programme. Using a comprehensive dataset covering 1,593 SMEs, the analysis distinguishes between firms engaged in a single project and those involved in multiple projects over the programme's duration. A novel project-level measure - contribution per project - is introduced to assess how effectively firms secure and utilise public research and development funding. The econometric analysis reveals that younger SMEs achieve higher funding efficiency in single-project contexts, reflecting their agility and innovation focus. However, they face significant challenges in multi-project participation due to limited administrative capacity and structural constraints. In contrast, older SMEs perform better in complex, multi-project environments, benefiting from accumulated experience and organisational maturity. These findings underscore the importance of firm age as a determinant of absorptive capacity and funding success, offering critical insights for the design of targeted innovation policies that support SMEs at different stages of development

Synthesizing signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

We introduce a summary indicator based on the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying indexes-financial health, labour market and consumer spending-that capture different factors influencing consumers' daily lives. We also leverage the rich demographic information available in the CSCE to construct summary indicators for different groups defined by characteristics such as age, home-ownership status and income. We show that there is significant heterogeneity across different demographic groups. This heterogeneity helps us understand how economic shocks disproportionately impact some households. Finally, we investigate which macroeconomic variables drive changes in the CSCE indicator and show that the fundamental drivers vary over time

Contribution of improved varieties to maize productivity under climate change in Uganda

Abstract One of the most promising pathways to enhance food security for smallholder farmers is the use of improved crop varieties to increase productivity and minimize climate risks. However, assessing the performance of improved crop varieties under climate change is difficult because of limited long-term empirical data from on-station- and farmer field trials and because future climate could be different from what has been experienced. In this study, the climate change adaptation potential of hybrid maize as an improved variety using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model applied on grid-scale across Uganda was analysed. The DSSAT model was calibrated with observed weather data and analysed the impact of climate change on maize yield under low (SSP1-RCP2.6) and high (SSP3-RCP7.0) emission scenarios. At the national level, it is projected that a yield reduction of 9.6% (low emission scenario) and 11.8% (high emission scenario) by 2030 will occur under climate change. A yield reduction of 11.2% (low emission scenario) and 19.6% (high emission scenario) is projected by 2050, and 13.3% (low emission scenario) and 29.4% (high emission scenario) by 2090. Comparing the effect of climate change between both varieties shows that it is always better to use the hybrid variety, especially under high emission climatic conditions (8.2% and 24.6% yield buffering by 2090 under low emission and high emission scenarios, respectively) at national level. This positive yield effect is realized across all grids, but substantially varies between sites. However, in order to increase adoption of hybrid maize varieties by smallholder farmers in Uganda, adoption barriers, like access to input markets and financial services, have to be overcome. We identify some of these barriers and discuss opportunities to attenuate them and implications on the modelling results. It is concluded that hybrid maize varieties can potentially be a suitable adaptation measure against climate change-related declines in maize production in Uganda

Auswirkungen der Zuwanderung aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten auf den SGB-II-Leistungsbezug von Einheimischen

Im vorliegenden Forschungsbericht wird analysiert, wie sich die Migration aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten auf den Bezug von SGB-II-Leistungen durch die einheimische Bevölkerung auswirkt. Dabei liegt der Schwerpunkt auf erwerbsfähigen Leistungsberechtigten, da diese Gruppe davon potenziell am stärksten betroffen sein müsste. Trotz eines deutlichen Anstiegs der Zuwanderung lässt sich auf gesamtwirtschaftlicher Ebene kein Anstieg des SGB-II-Leistungsbezugs unter Einheimischen feststellen. Im Gegenteil: Der Zeitraum verstärkter Zuwanderung aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten fällt mit einem Rückgang des SGB-II-Leistungsbezugs bei Einheimischen zusammen. Allerdings erlauben makroökonomische Zeitreihen lediglich Aussagen über Korrelationen, nicht jedoch über kausale Zusammenhänge. Aus diesem Grund werden ergänzend Regressionsanalysen auf regionaler und individueller Ebene durchgeführt. Hierbei wird die regionale Variation der Zuwanderung aus den EU-13-Staaten genutzt und zu Veränderungen im SGB-II-Leistungsbezug der einheimischen Bevölkerung in Beziehung gesetzt. Die Ergebnisse dieser Analysen deuten nicht darauf hin, dass die Zuwanderung aus den EU-13-Staaten einen nachweisbaren Effekt auf den SGB-II-Leistungsbezug der einheimischen Bevölkerung hatte. Weder auf regionaler noch auf individueller Ebene lässt sich ein systematischer und statistisch signifikanter Zusammenhang zwischen dem Ausmaß der Zuwanderung und Veränderungen im Bestand einheimischer Leistungsbeziehender feststellen. Die geschätzten Effekte sind meist gering, teilweise unterschiedlich gerichtet und statistisch unsicher. Insgesamt deuten die Befunde darauf hin, dass die Zuwanderung aus den EU-13-Staaten im untersuchten Zeitraum keine systematischen Veränderungen beim SGB-II-Leistungsbezug der einheimischen Bevölkerung bewirkt hat. Die Frage nach möglichen fiskalischen Auswirkungen der Migration auf die Sozialversicherungssysteme wurde in dieser Analyse nicht vertieft behandelt. Angesichts der hohen Erwerbsbeteiligung und der hohen Erwerbstätigenquoten der hier betrachteten Zuwanderungsgruppe dürften die Auswirkungen jedoch eher positiv sein.This research report analyzes how migration from the new EU member states affects the native population's receipt of SGB II benefits. The focus is on beneficiaries who are capable of working, as this group is likely to be the most affected. Despite a significant increase in immigration, there has been no increase in SGB II benefit receipt among the native population at the macroeconomic level. On the contrary, the period of increased immigration from the new EU member states coincides with a decline in SGB II benefit receipt among the native population. However, macroeconomic time series only allow statements to be made about correlations, not about causal relationships. For this reason, supplementary regression analyses are carried out at regional and individual level. These analyses use regional variations in immigration from the EU-13 countries and relate them to changes in SGB II benefit receipt among the native population. The results of these analyses do not indicate that immigration from the EU-13 countries had a demonstrable effect on SGB II benefit receipt among the native population. Neither at the regional nor at the individual level can a systematic and statistically significant correlation be established between the extent of immigration and changes in the number of native benefit recipients. The estimated effects are mostly small, sometimes mixed, and statistically uncertain. Overall, the findings suggest that immigration from the EU-13 countries did not cause any systematic changes in SGB II benefit receipt among the native population during the period under review. The question of the possible fiscal impact of migration on social security systems was not addressed in depth in this analysis. However, given the high labor force participation and employment rates of the immigrant group considered here, the effects are likely to be positive

Startup Capitalism: New Approaches to Innovation Strategies in East Asia

In Startup Capitalism, Robyn Klingler-Vidra and Ramon Pacheco Pardo explore the place of startups in contemporary East Asian economies. The last few decades have seen East Asian governments provide increasing support for startups—new, high-growth, technologically oriented firms. Yet, as the authors observe, such initiatives do not necessarily benefit the growth of startups as challengers to large, established firms. Rather, they often enable startups to function as boosters for the competitiveness of these firms. Startups, in short, are both disruptors to and resources for big businesses. Klingler-Vidra and Pacheco Pardo demonstrate this dual role by examining the evolution of startup-centric policies in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China. They show that in the region, what they call startup capitalism—an economic and political system in which startups contribute to employment, innovation, and growth—can take multiple forms. Rich with empirical detail, Startup Capitalism reveals how and why startups can end up working with—or even for—large firms to drive a country's technological capabilities

The research frontier on internationalization of social enterprises

Social enterprises (SEs) are hybrid organizations that simultaneously pursue financial and social goals, while addressing institutional voids. Despite the extensive cross-border activities of SEs, the state of research addressing such flows of funds, technology and personnel is undeveloped. In this introductory article, we discuss the unique aspects of SEs and explore how the international business literature can inform our understanding of their internationalization. We outline promising areas for future research related to the drivers of and the processes underlying SE internationalization as well as its consequences. With this as a background, we introduce the five articles in this Special Issue

Social protection and household composition: A panel data analysis of Tigrai, northern Ethiopia

Although development intervention programs can have far-reaching impacts beyond their stated objective, there have been few careful studies of unintended outcomes of such programs. This study assesses the role of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on household size and dependency ratio using the Difference-in-Difference (DiD) method based on panel data from four rounds over 12 years collected in Tigrai, northern Ethiopia. Results show that member households in the public works component of the PSNP have maintained a larger household size than their counterparts outside the PSNP. Member households also had a larger dependency ratio than their counterparts outside the PSNP five years after the program started (2005-2010). With the graduation of members and the downscaling of the program in the period 2010-2015, the effects on household size and dependency ratio were reduced and vanished